Fixing America: Was Trump's 2020 Loss a Victory in Disguise?

What if Trump had won the 2020 election? Would he have succeeded in delivering a decisive blow to the Deep State? Or could the Biden presidency be considered a blessing in disguise?

As we approach the November 5, 2024 election, we reflect on the past four years and consider how history might have played out if Trump had won the 2020 election. We do not intend to relitigate that election. Instead, let us assume that 20,000 votes across three states had gone the other way, resulting in Trump's reelection. We set out to explore what the country and the world might look like, and, more importantly, what the future would have held if that had happened. The answers we discovered may be surprising.

Imagine a world where, on November 3, 2020, officials in swing states did not stop counting votes at midnight. Instead, they continued counting, and by 2 AM on November 4, Trump was declared the winner of the election. Trump's presidency would likely have continued much as it had during his first four years, with him attempting to implement his ideas and policies while the Deep State, for want of a better word, vigorously pushed back. Things would have progressed steadily, but it is unlikely that there would have been any significant change in overall outlook.

While there would have been no January 6, there probably would’ve been a second Trump impeachment on some other contrived grounds. Would Trump have released the infamous Russiagate binder that might have brought accountability for the treachery perpetrated against both Trump and the country? Given that the Deep State bureaucracy would have used the same dirty tricks to stop it from being released that they used during Trump’s final days as president, it is likely we’d have never seen the binder. We could go on and on. At every twist and turn, the cat-and-mouse playbook of the first four years would simply have been replayed, over and over.

While a Trump presidency from 2021 to 2024 would likely have continued along the same trajectory it had been on, several outcomes would certainly have differed from what eventually happened. The first that comes to mind is the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan. Trump has consistently stated that, while the withdrawal would have proceeded, he would have retained control of the sprawling Bagram Air Force Base, strategically located near Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, and not far from China’s nuclear facilities. This approach would have addressed killed two birds with one stone, and it is unlikely that the Taliban would have been able to advance so quickly on Kabul had the United States maintained the base instead of abandoning it without even informing the then-Afghan government. 

The war in Ukraine, particularly the conflict that began in 2022, might have been averted. Trump would likely have also attempted to resolve the earlier conflict that began in Donbass in 2014. However, given that he would have faced the same obstacles as during his first term—chief among them the criminalization of diplomacy with Russia due to the Russia collusion hoax—it is uncertain whether he would have been any more successful. In other words, that situation too would likely have remained at a stalemate. 

There are numerous other examples we could discuss, ranging from the Middle East to the border to the ballooning deficit. But let’s face it: while things would have been far better under Trump instead of Biden and Harris, there is little likelihood that there would have been any fundamental change in direction.

There is, however, one aspect of the past four years that we can assert has brought about a fundamental change—specifically in mindset and resolve—that would not have been present had Trump won in 2020. This transformation can be traced back to our collective naivety. Who would have believed in 2016 that major law enforcement institutions in the United States were completely corrupt? No one fully understood the extent of the problem. (This is one of the issues covered in Hans’ new book.) To be fair, by 2020, we were no longer as naïve. However, in comparison to now, the situation would still have seemed far more innocent than it does today.

In 2020, no former president had ever been indicted or arrested. No former president had ever been raided by federal officials or prosecuted by his political opponents. No former president had been convicted by a kangaroo court on completely contrived charges. No laws had been retroactively been changed so as to allow a phony case to go forward against a former president. Being an attorney for a president or former president had not yet been criminalized. Now we know that merely being associated with Trump has led to countless individuals being bankrupted, canceled, and ostracized. 

We also did not know in 2020 the extent to which the government was involved in the censorship of American citizens. The gravity of this issue only began to come into focus just before the 2020 election when anyone who dared to discuss Hunter Biden’s laptop was swiftly silenced, including the venerable New York Post, America’s oldest newspaper. We later found out that all these actions have been coordinated by and with the help of federal government agents and agencies. We also found out that the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, an agency which had been called into life by Trump himself, albeit with a very different mission, was deeply involved in efforts to censor Americans who did not agree with the official narrative. In fact, we learned that media companies, social media platforms, and organizations with close ties to Democrats, such as the Aspen Institute, had conducted war games regarding the Hunter Biden laptop issue in advance. This could only have occurred if someone within the government had leaked information indicating it was a problem. The FBI, known for its relentless leaking during Trump’s first term, had possession of Hunter Biden's laptop since December 2019 and is high up on the list of suspects. Additionally, we found that five former CIA directors directly influenced the outcome of the 2020 election by issuing their infamous and fraudulent letter, which claimed that Hunter Biden’s laptop was part of a Russian plot. There are many other things we could talk about, including the entire January 6 saga and the Covid origin cover up, but the general point should be obvious: We simply had no idea in 2020 how bad things truly were.

The truth is that we now have a much deeper understanding of government corruption and treachery within our highest institutions than we did in 2020. We have come to realize that the problem of the Deep State is far more extensive than anyone believed in 2016 or even in 2020. This is the crux of the matter. A Trump presidency from 2020 to 2024, while it would have been far superior to Biden, would not have been as ruthless as it needed to be because we simply were not aware of the depths of the depravity. Unlike in 2016 and 2020, Trump now also has a team to address all the wickedness, including figures like Elon Musk, JD Vance, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

There are also the two assassination attempts against Trump. Those kinds of events focus the mind, as Kennedy’s mindset was shaped by the assassinations of his father and uncle.

The nation’s issues, particularly government corruption and betrayal, are far more significant than we had previously imagined. But for the first time in a long while—likely since the era of Ronald Reagan—there is a renewed sense that the country’s problems can be addressed and perhaps even fixed. There is hope. While a second term for Trump in 2020 would undoubtedly have been preferable to Biden, we must conclude, perhaps paradoxically, that Trump’s four-year absence and the remarkable treachery we have all witnessed during this period have opened our eyes. It is akin to a blessing in disguise.

But there is more. We can now also envision the possibility of genuine solutions. If the power of government was wielded against Trump and his allies on fabricated grounds, there is no reason it cannot be directed, on legitimate grounds, against those who have committed acts of treachery. If Elon Musk can reduce Twitter's staff by 90% while producing an even better product, there is no reason why government inefficiencies cannot be similarly addressed. At the very least, we must make the attempt. To be clear, it will not be easy, and there will be monumental pushback from the Deep State. Nevertheless, in many ways, there is a far greater opportunity for success in 2025 than there was in 2021, both because the masks are completely off and because we now possess much more experience in confronting the challenges that lie ahead.

Lastly, if nothing else, had it not been for Trump's loss, the Republican Party establishment would be back in control. Vice President Mike Pence would right now be competing against Kamala Harris for the presidency, and the outcome would make little to no difference. Either the Democratic establishment would remain in power, or the Republican establishment would regain control. In any case, the Washington, D.C. establishment would continue to operate as it always has. The fact that it no longer has to be that way is probably the most significant victory we gained from Trump's 2020 loss.

Of course, none of the above matters unless Trump wins.